When the topic of how many more points a club needs to stay up is the first topic of casual conversation among supporters, it’s not a very reliable indicator for any club. With 13 games remaining in an incredibly frustrating season that has already sparked sincere discussion about whether this is the worst period in Stoke City’s history, that is, however, where they stand.
If you’re looking for hope, you should know that the players Steven Schumacher has used in his last two games—a win and a loss—have received standing ovations for their effort. This is a far cry from the collapse at Blackburn Rovers, which concluded with a chant informing the team it wasn’t fit to wear the shirt.
“We’ve got to make sure that we’re ready to stand up for the fight and that’s what we keep asking the players to do,” stated the head coach. “I am confident that we have the right characters in place to achieve the desired outcomes.”
It’s unclear exactly what outcomes Stoke needs. In order to guarantee safety in the Championship, managers typically aim for the 50-point mark, but it seems improbable that three teams won’t fall short of it this time around. Following their loss to Ipswich last night, Rotherham already needs to win a title in order to get to 50 points, and they need to score 1.6 points per game to reach 40 points. In order to worry the 50s, Sheffield Wednesday needs to score 1.6, which is almost twice as much as they are currently scoring.
From this vantage point, a team would have a half-chance of surviving in this bizarre season where the top four are all on pace to score more than 90 points if they were in the mid-40s. You would most likely cross the line in your late 40s.
Stoke are concerned about two things. It’s been very difficult to score and to maintain clean sheets. So what is the best way to average the required number of points per game, or more? In his last two games, Schumacher has played compact and narrow, keeping Stoke in the game. When a team concedes two or three goals before halftime, as they did against Leicester and Blackburn, it is doomed to defeat. Since the beginning of November, the team has only scored more than once in a game on two occasions out of 19 games. It is just as demoralising as anything else.
On to the grind, then. Not a bad experience for a manager whose reputation was built on daring attacking football, but sometimes necessities must be met. Stoke won’t be far behind if they can win two or three of the remaining games and convert a good chunk of these 13 games into draws. Of course, it is damning to be in this position, but supporters will support a team that plays as a unit.
In his first six games, Schumacher did appear to have found a nice balance—winning two, drawing three, and regrettably losing at home against Birmingham. While it would be ideal to finish the season in a position where he can find that once more, finishing the season above the dotted line must come first for him.
Stoke’s remaining matches
Saturday, February 24: Cardiff City (away)
Saturday, March 2: Middlesbrough (home)
Tuesday, March 5: Leeds United (away)
Saturday, March 9: Preston North End (away)
Saturday, March 16: Norwich City (home)
Friday, March 29: Hull City (away)
Monday, April 1: Huddersfield Town (home)
Saturday, April 6: West Bromwich Albion (home)
Wednesday, April 10: Swansea City (away)
Saturday,April 13: Sheffield Wednesday (away)
Saturday, April 20: Plymouth Argyle (home)
Saturday, April 27: Southampton (away)
Saturday, May 4: Bristol City (home)
