According to YouGov’s estimate, Labour is the party most likely to win all four Ayrshire seats if an election held today: North Ayrshire and Arran, Central Ayrshire, Kilmarnock and Loudoun, and Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock. However, the party is leading in all four by a very slim margin.
According to YouGov’s comprehensive seat-by-seat analysis, all four of the Ayrshire constituencies are “toss-ups.”
According to the analysis, Labour may win 34 seats in Scotland in the July 4 election, while the SNP would take 17, the Conservatives would gain 5, and the Liberal Democrats would get 1.
According to a poll conducted for Sky News using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) technique, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is expected to win a majority of 194 seats in the Commons the biggest margin since 1924 for any party.
According to the data, Labour received 38.1 per cent of the vote in North Ayrshire and Arran, while the SNP received 33.4%.
Labour is at 35.2% in Central Ayrshire while the SNP is at 30.8%.
According to the YouGov survey, Labour has 38.9% of the vote in Kilmarnock and Loudoun, while the SNP has 34.8%.
And with Labour at 31.8 per cent and the SNP at 30.6 per cent, the battle in Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock is the closest of all the Ayrshire seats.
With 11.4 percent in North Ayrshire and Arran, 18.1 percent in Central Ayrshire, 7.1 percent in Kilmarnock and Loudoun, and 22.8 percent in Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock, the Conservatives rank third in all four constituencies.
For the past nine years, the SNP has held all four seats.
These are some of the twenty seats in Scotland (more than one-third of the total) that the YouGov survey suggests are too close to call, giving all the parties something to fight for in the final four and a half weeks of the campaign.
The Conservatives are currently expected to hold the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale, and Tweeddale seat, which included the Upper Nithsdale communities of Kirkconnel and Sanquhar.
YouGov used responses from 53,334 respondents in England and Wales and 5,541 adults in Scotland to produce seat projections.
YouGov said the Scottish sample was the largest it had used for a poll using the MRP technique since the 2019 general election.
Across the UK the YouGov research suggests Labour is on course for a landslide win with 420 MPs, up from 202 at the last election five years ago, with the Conservatives down to just 140.
The projected SNP total of 17 seats is little more than a third of the 48 constituencies won by the party in 2019.
Candidates declared so far in all the Ayrshire seats are as follows.
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock: Allan Dorans (SNP), Martin Dowey (Conservative), Andrew Russell (Reform UK), Elaine Stewart (Labour), Corri Wilson (Alba).
Central Ayrshire: Stevie Bates (Reform UK), Alan Gemmell (Labour), Allan MacMillan (Social Democratic Party), Annie McIndoe (SNP), David Rocks (Conservative).
Kilmarnock and Loudoun: Alan Brown (SNP), Jordan Cowie (Conservative), Lillian Jones (Labour).
North Ayrshire and Arran: Irene Campbell (Labour), Todd Ferguson (Conservative), Ian Gibson (Social Democratic Party), Patricia Gibson (SNP), Michael Mann (Reform UK).
The deadline for candidates to submit nomination papers is 4pm on Friday, June 7, and the lists of candidates standing in each constituency will be published by 5pm on the same day.
The YouGov predictions published on Monday are the first of three polling projections it will carry out with Sky News during the course of the campaign.
For more information on the YouGov research see
