These five players The Cardinals missed something they’ll regret.
The St. Louis Cardinals have been connected to numerous pitchers this summer to improve their rotation and bullpen. Unfortunately, they can’t land all the names they were associated to. They’ve signed Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Sonny Gray for the rotation and traded for Andrew Kittredge for the bullpen. While adequate, the rotation needs improvement and another bullpen arm. Which player they missed out on this offseason would they regret most?
Tyler Glasnow
After signing Gibson, Lynn, and Gray, the Cardinals seemed satisfied with their 2024 rotation. Tyler Glasnow revealed St. Louis was interested in dealing for him before he signed an agreement with the Dodgers. The Dodgers acquired Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca for Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, and $4 million cash.
This trade may have been Tink Hence and a mid-tier Cardinals prospect. This trade arrangement would have been inappropriate without a guaranteed extension, but the $136.5 million, 5-year agreement might be a value if he remains healthy. Glasnow is one of the league’s best pitchers and might be the Cardinals’ frontline ace for years.
Naturally, Tyler Glasnow’s injury history is a major issue. Glasnow’s career-high 120 innings in 2023 mark only the second time in his 8-year MLB career that he’s exceeded 100 innings. The Dodgers are comfortable handing him a big contract, and Glasnow has said he can continue on the field. If so, the Cardinals may regret missing out on one of baseball’s top pitchers at a discount.
Aaron Nola
One of the earliest offseason acquisitions was Aaron Nola, who returned to the Phillies for 7 years and $172 million. Nola signed for less than Cardinals starter Sonny Gray at just under $25 million per year. Nola may have earned more money elsewhere, but if the Cardinals could have signed him to the same deal, it would have been a massive wasted opportunity.
As the Cardinals’ starter, Nola’s strikeout rate would have shifted the pitch-to-contact strategy to swing-and-miss. The executive staff changed the bullpen’s philosophy, but it’s unclear if the rotation will emphasis on strikeouts in 2024. As the 2023 Cardinals struggled with pitch-to-contact, Nola’s acquisition would have alleviated concerns for 2024.
The Phillies re-signed Nola at a discount this offseason despite his declining velocity, strikeout rate, and run prevention in 2023. Nola’s 2023 postseason was likewise strong. He was 3-1 in four starts and provided the Phillies a good opportunity to win. His ability to go deep into postseason starts is rare, since many starting pitchers are yanked at the first hint of problems.
Even if Nola’s stats drop from career norms, St. Louis would’ve saved much with his new contract. He offered Philly a hometown discount, but if the Cardinals encounter him in the playoffs like they did in 2022, Cardinal supporters may wish the front staff had paid more for Nola this offseason.
Woo-Suk Go
I was astonished by Woo-Suk Go’s San Diego Padres contract. Go was a Korean reliever who had yet to show himself in MLB, so I didn’t expect Josh Hader-type money, but I also didn’t expect him to sign for 2 years, $4.5 million. The Cardinals were active in the reliever market, so I anticipated them to match San Diego’s offer (which they surely did). The Cardinals shouldn’t pass on Go at less than $3 million a year for two years, unlike Yuki Matsui, who they were hesitant to sign for four years.
The contract specifics show that Go liked San Diego or he would have gone somewhere for more money. The Cardinals would take a gamble on Go, a 25-year-old reliever with significant promise. Go selected the Padres for location or comfort. Perhaps he always wanted a West Coast market or was influenced by WBC colleague Ha-Seong Kim. We’ll never know.
The most unpredictable part of baseball is reliever performance. Go may be an All-Star or play poorly and be dismissed before the season. However, as a top KBO closer, I anticipate him to perform well as a high-leverage bullpen option. For the Cardinals’ low signing fee, they’ll wish Go had picked St. Louis over San Diego.
Chris Sale
With Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, the starting rotation will likely provide most innings in 2024. Chris Sale may have been the best buy-low candidate this summer for the Cardinals. The trade from Boston to Atlanta for shortstop prospect Vaughn Grissom wasn’t expensive. Perhaps Dylan Carlson and a mid-tier prospect could’ve closed the deal.
The Red Sox are paying Sale’s full salary for 2024, so the Braves won’t be financially hampered. Sale proved he can be a middle-rotation starter in 2024 despite a series of injuries. Despite his 4.30 ERA, his predicted 3.80 FIP suggested he was unlucky. A midseason injury wrecked his season, but he still had an exceptional 11.0 K/9.
The Cardinals wouldn’t exceed the luxury tax, so dealing for Sale is like getting him for nothing. If they simply needed to trade a high-upside offensive player like Vaughn Grissom for the Braves, it should have been easy. If Sale is injured, no issue, but if he performs near his Cy Young-level former self, he’d make the Cardinals rotation a playoff danger. If Chris Sale finds a new gear in Atlanta and stays healthy all season, the Cardinals will regret not trading for him from the Red Sox.
Shohei Ohtani
You undoubtedly saw this coming if you’ve followed my Cardinals baseball coverage. I guarantee I have excellent reasons. After Shohei Ohtani signed for 10 years, $700 million with the Dodgers, I was shocked and fine that the Cardinals hadn’t offered him such a ludicrous figure.
More information regarding Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers indicated that it may be a bargain rather than an overpay. His deal is worth less than expected due to Ohtani’s $680 million deferral until 2034 and beyond. The MLB Commissioner’s office estimates its value at $460 million a year, which will be used to compute the Dodgers’ luxury tax fines.
Ohtani’s contract is worth $460 million in present-day money, making it more affordable for the Cardinals. The Chicago Cubs’ $500 million offer exceeded the Dodgers’ (thanks Shohei for not meeting with them, Cardinal Nation appreciates that).
Let’s separate Ohtani into hitter and pitcher. Indeed, this is the only way to evaluate his contract. Ohtani the bat would sign a 10-year $260 million deal if he made Bryce Harper’s $26 million AAV. Today, Harper’s deal is a steal, but Ohtani’s hitting value is higher. Harper had a 140 OPS+ in his first six seasons in Washington, while Ohtani had 148 in Anaheim (including a.190 2020 season). Harper was steady, while Ohtani progressed greatly throughout his Angels tenure. Harper is now limited to first base and DH, while Ohtani is a pure DH when not pitching.
This leaves Ohtani the pitcher at 10-years, $200 million. UCL reconstructive surgery prevents him from pitching next season, therefore let’s assume 9-years $200 million. Again, Ohtani’s AAV of just over $22 million a year is less than the Cardinals’ Sonny Gray, and given his track record as a top MLB starter, a bargain.
The Cardinals wouldn’t have added him to their 2024 rotation, because Shohei Ohtani is a once-in-a-generation talent. I haven’t considered Ohtani’s business benefits to the Dodgers. The Los Angeles Dodgers signed one of the best baseball players ever for 10 years of championship runs, won over Japanese baseball fans, and did it cheaply. The Cardinals, like any Major League team, should be jealous.
