Tonight, Ohio State hopes to recreate last season’s upset against Illinois to forget their defeat to Northwestern.
Jami Jurich, an SB Nation contributor and Ohio State journalism graduate, writes professionally.
Ohio State heads home tonight to play the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini in Columbus in their only season rematch after Saturday’s 83-58 away defeat to Northwestern.
Saturday’s setback to the Wildcats marked the Buckeyes’ second straight loss (their fifth in six games), and they can only hope for a 3-5 January. The Wildcats were hot off their win over Illinois, and OSU was behind 41-30 at halftime due to shooting issues.
The Buckeyes trailed by 35 points at the under-8 media timeout, their worst deficit of the season, and couldn’t stop the Wildcats, especially from three-point range. Northwestern was 7-for-13 from deep in the first half. The Wildcats beat the Buckeyes with 19 points from senior guard Boo Buie, who scored 29 points earlier in the week to beat Illinois.
As the Buckeyes try to recover from last season’s 14-game losing streak in January and February, memories are returning.
After a late-game push by Indiana, star player Terrence Shannon Jr.’s six free throws in the last minute helped the Illini win 70-62 and move to Columbus.
Illinois is two games behind Wisconsin in the league, and Ohio State needs this big win to end January well.
Illinois was expected to win comfortably in Columbus in February when Ohio State and Illinois played. The Illini had Shannon back from injury, the Buckeyes were on a nine-game losing run, and the season was looking more bad.
OSU defeated Illinois 72-60 after then-freshman Bruce Thornton scored 20 points and Brice Sensabaugh scored 14. They stifled a second-half Illinois rally and made all their baskets in the last 6:21.
The Buckeyes must break their shooting slump to win this game.
The Buckeyes opened Saturday’s game against Northwestern 1-for-5 from the floor, with five of their first nine points coming from the free throw line. They shot 14-for-39 from the field and 5-for-19 from three.
Over the past five games, the Buckeyes have shot 24.3% from three-point range. Other than Jamison Battle’s 14-for-29 (48%), the club is shooting 15.9% (13-for-82). If they want to beat Illinois, which averages 82.1 points, they must shoot threes.
A club that held Indiana to one three-pointer in their last game will make it difficult. Hoosiers went 0-for-9 from three. Not only three-pointers will decide the game.
Thornton, who leads the team with 16.1 points and 4.3 assists, Roddy Gayle, and Battle, who each average 13.8 points, must make their shots, whether they’re threes or not, against an Illini team that ranks 13th in effective field goal defense and 14th in 2-point field goal defense, according to KenPom.
Ohio State sophomore Bowen Hardman may jumpstart their shooting. After going 1-for-2 on three-pointers against Northwestern, he was electrifying against Nebraska in eight minutes, shooting 3-of-7 from outside and scoring 11 points. Hardman may be a game-changer for the Buckeyes against a good Illinois squad if he can stay accurate and put up high numbers in short bursts.
Illini won’t make it easy. They lead the Big Ten in rebounds per game (43.3) and have outrebounded opponents in 14 of 19 games. Weak shots against the Fighting Illini will limit the Buckeyes’ chances of getting second opportunities.
In defense, Ohio State must play near-perfect basketball to beat the Illini.
The Illini can score big thanks to senior guard Shannon Jr., who averages 19.9 points, and senior center Marcus Domask, who averages 15.2 points and 3.5 assists.
Shannon will play his fourth game back following a university-imposed ban while he confronts a Kansas rape charge tonight. A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction to return him to the team.
Domask led the Illini against Indiana with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Senior center Coleman Hawkins and junior guard Luke Goode scored 11 points each. Shannon was a playmaker with 12 points, six rebounds, and key late-game free throws in eight minutes in the first half despite early foul trouble.
A team that has played well for much of the season (even in their overtime defeat to Northwestern two weeks ago) won ugly, but the Illini’s tenacity and resilience will challenge the Buckeyes tonight. An Ohio State squad that has battled with three-point defense and failed to execute defensively in the second half in defeats to Indiana and Wisconsin faces this task.
The Buckeyes have performed better at home than on the road in the last year (the understatement of the century, given their 14-game road loss streak), so they must use their home court to repeat last season’s upset and right their ship before it goes further off course.
Prediction
As the Buckeyes’ season has plummeted throughout the month, January has felt like relentless insult on top of injury, with their NCAA Tournament place on the edge of exploding. Missing the tournament for a second straight season would be devastating, especially given how potential this club appeared a month ago.
Still, those are the stakes for February. To keep their dreams alive, the Buckeyes must dig deep and play near-perfect basketball against the Illini after losing a few games this month.
In practically every area, Illinois has played better recently. In early-season marquee wins, the Buckeyes showed they could do it, but their recent careless errors and shooting issues must go to hold the Illini at bay.
Illinois leads OSU in points per game (82.1 to 75.2), but turnovers and points allowed are about equal. Ohio State has 10.1 turnovers to Illinois’ 10.9 and allows 68.2 points to Illinois’ 68.7.
However, paper and performance under duress are different, and the Buckeyes’ postseason chances will be dashed if they can’t win big. It is feasible, but they will need to play near-perfect basketball on all fronts and maybe some magic against a top-10 Illinois team that has played well for much of the season.
